






SMM July 16 Report:
Metals Market:
As of daytime session close, domestic base metals mostly rose, with only SHFE lead and SHFE zinc declining - SHFE lead fell 0.68% while SHFE zinc dropped 0.27%. SHFE nickel led the gains with a 0.91% increase, while other metals saw marginal gains below 0.5%. Alumina main contract fell 1.58%, while aluminum main contract rose 0.23%.
Additionally, lithium carbonate main contract gained 0.39%, polysilicon main contract rose 1.5% (notching its 11th consecutive day of gains), and silicon metal main contract fell 0.91%. The main contract for Europe container shipping rose 1.4% to 1,598.1.
In the ferrous metals series, most prices declined - only iron ore rose 1.05%, while coking coal and coke both fell over 1% (coking coal down 1.48%, coke down 1.45%).
Overseas markets: As of 15:02, LME base metals saw LME aluminum, LME tin, and LME nickel all rise (LME tin up 0.22%, LME nickel up 0.09%, LME aluminum up 0.06%). LME lead fell 0.53% while other metals saw marginal declines.
Precious metals: As of 15:02, COMEX gold rose 0.3% and COMEX silver gained 0.2%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell 0.2% and SHFE silver dropped 0.35%.
Market snapshot as of 15:02 today
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Macro Front
Domestic Updates:
[NBS: China's Q2 GDP reaches 34,177.8 billion yuan]Z13/>The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced today (July 16) that based on preliminary calculations using foundational data and GDP accounting methods, China's Q2 GDP reached 34,177.8 billion yuan, up 5.2% YoY. By sector, primary industry added value reached 1,945.9 billion yuan (+3.8% YoY), secondary industry 12,714.7 billion yuan (+4.8% YoY), and tertiary industry 19,517.2 billion yuan (+5.7% YoY).
[PBOC injects 444.6 billion yuan via open market operations] The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted 520.1 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations at 1.40% interest rate (unchanged). With 75.5 billion yuan in maturing reverse repos, this resulted in a net injection of 444.6 billion yuan.
► July 16 central parity rate: 1 US dollar = 7.1526 yuan
US Dollar Dynamics:
As of 15:02, the US dollar index fell 0.18 to 98.45. Despite a rebound in US June CPI, core CPI missed expectations, with markets anticipating the US Fed will stand pat in July. The selection process for the next Fed Chairman has commenced, with the US Fed's independence facing interference. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the US CPI rose 2.7% YoY in June, marking the largest YoY increase since February. After excluding the more volatile food and energy prices, the US core inflation rate increased 2.9% YoY in June. CCTV News reported that on the 15th local time, US President Trump posted on his social media platform "Truth Social" that inflation was low and the US Fed should cut interest rates by 3 percentage points, which could save $1 trillion in a year. Attention should be paid to the progress of trade negotiations and tonight's US PPI data for June. (Wenhua Comprehensive)
Macro:
Data to be released today include the UK's CPI annual rate for June, the UK's core CPI annual rate for June, the UK's retail price index annual rate for June, China's total electricity consumption for June - monthly (released at irregular times from the 16th to the 20th), the eurozone's seasonally adjusted trade balance for May, the US PPI annual rate for June, the US core PPI annual rate for June, the US monthly industrial output rate for June, the US capacity utilization rate for June, the US monthly manufacturing output rate for June, the US manufacturing capacity utilization rate for June, and the US annual industrial output rate - seasonally adjusted for June, among others.
In addition, attention should be paid to speeches by Fed Governor Barr at a conference hosted by the US Fed; speeches by 2025 FOMC voter and Boston Fed President Collins; speeches by Bank of England Governor Bailey; speeches by 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan on the US economy; speeches by 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hamack; speeches by Fed Governor Barr on financial regulation at the Brookings Institution; and a media briefing held by Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang in Beijing.
Crude Oil:
As of 15:02, oil prices in both markets rose together, with US oil up 0.68% and Brent oil up 0.49%. Boosted by expectations of strong summer demand in major oil-consuming countries, but analysts' cautious attitude towards the overall economic outlook limited the gains.
A commodity analyst stated that with summer travel and industrial activity reaching their peaks, robust seasonal demand is currently providing upward momentum for oil prices. "The increase in gasoline consumption, especially during the US Independence Day holiday, indicates strong fuel demand, helping to offset bearish pressures from inventory increases and tariff concerns." However, some analysts believe the price rebound is temporary. Priyanka Sachdeva, a senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, said that the crude oil market stabilized after two days of sharp fluctuations, mainly due to technical corrections rather than significant changes in fundamentals. She added, "Investors should closely monitor US inflation and interest rate expectations, as the US's continued push for broader tariff measures could trigger inflation and dampen fuel demand in the medium term." Sachdeva noted that OPEC remains relatively optimistic, with the organization's monthly report released on Tuesday forecasting improved global economic performance in the second half of this year, thereby boosting crude oil demand prospects. The report also highlighted that Brazil, China, and India outperformed expectations, while the US and EU are recovering from last year's downturn.
Data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed increases in US crude oil, distillate, and gasoline inventories last week. Crude oil inventories rose by 839,000 barrels during the week ending July 11. Gasoline inventories increased by 1.93 million barrels, and distillate inventories grew by 828,000 barrels. Analysts had expected a decline of approximately 600,000 barrels in US crude oil inventories, an increase of about 200,000 barrels in distillate inventories, and a decrease of 1 million barrels in gasoline inventories. (Comprehensive report from Wenhua)
SMM Daily Review
►[SMM MHP Daily Review] July 16: Indonesian MHP prices decline
►[SMM Nickel Sulphate Daily Review] July 16: Nickel salt prices stabilize
►Weak downstream market prices keep raw material prices under short-term pressure [NPI Daily Review]
►Silver prices experience slight correction as spot market slightly improves [SMM Daily Review]
►Rare earth prices stabilize with improved market trading activity [SMM Rare Earth Daily Review]
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